The USDA did not do us any favors on today’s USDA report with most numbers across the board coming in bearish. Below is a quick recap of numbers.
Corn:
In its report, the USDA pegged the U.S. 2015/16 marketing year corn ending stocks at 1.837 billion bushels, compared with the surveyed analysts’ average estimate of 1.809 billion bushels and the USDA’s January estimate of 1.802 billion. For world 2015/16 corn ending stocks, the USDA pegged them at 208.81 mmt, compared with the average trade estimate of 208.25 mmt and the USDA’s previous estimate of 208.94. For Argentina’s 2015/16 corn output, the USDA sees 27.00 mmt. vs. the USDA’s previous estimate of 25.60 mmt.
Beans:
For U.S. 2015/16 soybean ending stocks, the USDA estimates a total of 450 million bushels, vs. the average trade estimate of 445 million and the USDA’s January estimate of 440 million. World soybean ending stocks, for 2015/16 marketing year, are pegged at (80.42 mmt. vs. the average trade estimate of 78.97 mmt and the USDA’s January estimate of 79.28 mmt. Brazil’s 2015/16 soybean output is pegged at 100.00 mmt vs. the USDA January estimate of 100.00 mmt. Brazil’s corn production, for 2015/16 is estimated at 84.00 mmt. vs. the average trade estimate of 81.50 mmt. Argentina’s soybean production estimate is marked at 58.50 mmt. vs. the USDA’s previous estimate of 57.00 mmt.
Wheat:
USDA pegged the U.S. 2015/16 wheat stocks at 966 million bushels, compared with the average trade estimate of 947 million bushels and the USDA’s January estimate of 941 million. In its report, the USDA estimates the world wheat 2015/16 ending stocks at 238.87 million metric tons vs. the trade’s average estimate of 231.48 mmt and the USDA’s January estimate of 232.04 mmt.
Cotton:
The adjustments to U.S. exports and total usage was much higher than anticipated resulting in our ending stocks being raised from 3.0 million bales last month to 3.6 million bales this month. World Carryout was also raised by 1.22 million bales to 1.04.08 million bales (39.56 outside of China). Overall, today’s report was bearish for cotton, it remains to be seen just how much of this information has already been priced into the market.
| USDA 2015/2016 Carryout in Bil Bu. | ||||
| USDA Feb 16 | Average Trade Est | Range of Trade Est | USDA Jan 16 | |
| Corn | 1.83 | 1.827 | 1.752-1.852 | 1.802 |
| Soybeans | 450 | 0.445 | .425-.470 | 0.44 |
| Wheat | 966 | 0.947 | .931-.975 | 0.941 |
| Cotton | 3.6 | 3 | 2.9-3.10 | 3.1 |