USDA September Stocks

Corn has rallied 22 1/4 cents since the December contract low was put in on Sept 18. With corn stocks over 100 million above trade expectations, it was hard for corn to hang on to the upward trend. Reports of variable yield data from the earlier planted corn in the midwest continues to create mixed reviews of the the 181 bu national yield from Sept USDA report. Soybeans were supported this week from a flash sales announcement on 672,000 tons of soybeans to Mexico, the largest soybean sale since September 2017 when China bought 960,000 tons. Despite the larger stocks number, 4th quarter usage was a record 781 million bushels. Wheat stocks came in just slightly higher than trade expectations. The stronger US dollar has wheat export expectations well behind pace for the year. Indonesia, the world’s largest wheat importer, has increased its estimate on wheat imports for this year by 500,000 tons. US winter wheat crop planting is running 6% ahead of last years pace. Harvest progress for beans and corn should slow this week with challenging weather ahead.

Early premiums in the bean basis are already starting to shrink as processors plan to go to harvest type basis levels starting next week. With a big crop in the Midwest and not as many beans moving to the port as is typical due to the trade war, basis may get significantly weaker this year. Beans are already starting to back up in the western belt.

With all of this information to divulge, it is more important than ever to begin thinking about your crop mix for next year and having price objectives. Having a target price in mind will help your operation meet its price goals and to be a sustainable operation year after year. There are several structured products exclusive to our Pinnacle Marketing members that can allow producers to lock in prices above the board price, please ask us how!!