Soybean exports massive again – within expectations
-Corn exports at bottom end of market expectations
-Wheat exports at top end of expectations
U.S. soybean exports, for the week ended 11/03/16, were massive again at 2.623 MMT (96.4 million bushels) and, while they were within market expectations of 2.5-2.8 MMT (91.9-102.9 million bushels), they were notably above last year’s same-week exports of 76.5 million bushels and were the 2nd highest on record for the first week of November, falling a bit below 2014/15’s 102 million bushels. We would also note that last week’s exports were revised higher as well to 109.3 million bushels from the initial reporting of 105.4 million bushels. Cumulative exports, now at 597 million bushels, are record high for the 1st week of November and are up 15% from last year’s 517 million and above 2014/15’s 496 million bushels. Soybean exports will need to average roughly 32.0 million bushels/week from this point forward in order to reach the USDA’s current 2.025 billion bushel export projection vs last year’s average weekly shipments from this point forward of 31.7 million bushels/week. While the pace of exports this year running solidly above last year’s pace so far would appear to make the USDA’s projection a “slam dunk” with shipment only needing to keep pace with last year, keep in mind that last year’s July-August exports smashed previous record levels, which is unlikely to be achieved again this year if South American crops prove as large as currently expected. Nonetheless, the impressive pace of exports so far could prompt USDA to push their export estimate higher yet in Wednesday’s WASDE report.
U.S. corn exports last week of 890k tonnes (35.0 million bushels) were at the bottom end of market expectations of 900k-1.1 million tonnes (35.4-43.3 million bushels) and were little-changed from last week’s 34.6 million bushels, but still well above last year’s historically slow early marketing year exports this week of just 11.6 million bushels. Cumulative exports of 399 million bushels are now up 83% from last year’s 218 million bushels, while exports will need to average roughly 40.6 million bushels/week from this point forward in order to reach the USDA’s projection vs 37.5 million/week from this point forward last year. We would also note that the current pace of exports is the largest since 2007/08 when cumulative exports as of early November were 409 million bushels. We would not be surprised if USDA bumps their 2.225 billion bushel export estimate a bit higher in Wednesday’s WASDE report.
U.S. wheat exports last week of 494k tonnes (18.2 million bushels) were at the top end of market expectations of 300-500k tonnes (11.0-18.4 million bushels) and were up from last week’s modest exports of 12.3 million bushels and above last year’s uninspired exports this week of just 10.6 million bushels. Cumulative exports of 446 million bushels are up 30% from last year’s 343 million bushels at this time, while the USDA’s 975 million bushel export projection reflects expectations for 2016/17 exports to be up 26% on the year. In order to reach the USDA’s current projection, wheat exports will need to average roughly 17.0 million bushels/week from this point forward, a 26% gain from last year’s average exports through the end of the marketing year of 13.5 million bushels/week. We feel USDA may be a bit premature if they choose to bump their export estimate higher in Wednesday’s WASDE report.
COURTESY OF Randy Mittelstaedt FROM RJ OBRIEN