Corn
• Strong U.S. and World Demand
• Both U.S. and World Stocks Decreased in 2019
• Large U.S. acres expected in 2020 (94-95mil)
• U.S. projected Ending Stocks at 2.7 billion for 2020
• With increased acres projected and increased projected ending stocks for 2020 look for pricing opportunities for 2020 and 2021
• Local basis will remain firm – best in U.S.
• Currently 20% priced at $4.50 on 2020 Model Farm Crop (Futures Only – No Basis)
• Target Sep ‘20 at $4.05 for next objective
• Last 5 years June, July produced market highs
Soybeans
• Strong U.S. and World Demand
• U.S. Ending Stocks dropped from 909 to 440 million bushels without China trade deal
• Inland Port at Dillon, SC
aaaaa• Like adding another processor from demand standpoint
aaaaa• Helping all basis in SC and NC
• Currently 40% priced at $9.7375 on 2020 Model Farm Crop (Futures Only – No Basis)
• Target Nov ‘20 at $10.00 for next objective
Cotton
• Strong World Demand for U.S. Cotton (16.5-17.5m bales) – Key for U.S.
• Stagnant U.S. demand (3-3.5m bales)
• U.S. acres projected at 12.5m (down from 13.74m acres)
• U.S. Ending Stocks projected at 4.5m bales (down from 5.39m bales)
• China has reduced stocks 6m bales below usage
aaaaa• U.S. prime candidate to pick up business with China
aaaaa• U.S. currently exports around 2.2m bales to China – projecting 3-3.5m bales for 2020 possible
• Top 3 U.S. export destinations
aaaaa1. Vietnam – 3.3m bales
aaaaa2. China – 2.2m bales
aaaaa3. Pakistan – 1.9m bales
• Target Dec ‘20 at $73.50 for first pricing objective
Wheat
• U.S. production for 2020 expecting slight decrease
• World demand weak
• U.S. Ending Stocks projecting slight decrease
• Local supply should be increased with more planted acres
• Milling wheat basis for harvest projected at +60-70 vs wheat board
• Local feed wheat basis for harvest projected at +90-1.20 vs corn board
• Currently 25% priced at $5.50 on 2020 Model Farm Crop (Futures Only – No basis)
• Target July ‘20 at $5.75 on 25% exp. production 2020 crop
• Target July ‘20 at $6.00 on 25% exp. production 2020 crop
• Target July ‘21 at $6.00 on 25% exp. production 2021 crop
| Take Home Thoughts 1) Have a marketing plan 2) Set objectives 3) Know your cost of production 4) Don’t be afraid to sell a profit 5) Last 5 marketing highs were made in June and July |
Pinnacle Marketing
• Transparent sharing of information
aaaaaSet pricing objectives with you and keep you on track while you are busy (planting, growing, harvesting, etc.)
• Not trying to make any margins off your trade
aaaaaIf you have a better bid we are the first to tell you to sell it
• Provide quick, to the point information through:
aaaaaDaily Futures Prices, Recorded Phone Call, Market Recommendations, Weekly Market Update, Bi-Monthly Basis Update, Weekly Model Farm Update, and USDA Report Updates